The Snow Report: All Star Break Edition

Before I get into the real nitty-gritty of this blog I wanted to give a brief oversight of what I plan on doing with “Snow Report” blogs. The plan is for these to be something that goes up on a week to week basis and covers the good, bad, and the surprising/weird happenings with the Avalanche. It may not always be on ice-related stuff, but more just the feel around the team from a fan’s perspective. With that said this week I’m just gonna go over the first half and some change of the season so far. Without further ado, let’s get into it. 

THE GOOD: MacKinnon, Makar, Depth, and Scoring

Nathan god damn MacKinnon! There’s not a whole lot that needs to be said about this guy right now, but I’m going to anyway. MacK has been nothing short of a god so far this season. He’s played in all 49 games this season and has been putting up simply absurd numbers. So far this season he’s got 30 goals and 42 assists for 72 points. He’s been able to get his cookies while missing his usual linemates, Landeskog and Rantanen, for about a third of the season. To say he’s in the conversation for the Hart this year is doing him a disservice, to be honest. In my completely unbiased opinion, he’s the runaway favorite to win it this year after being robbed by the voters two years ago. The fact that Taylor Hall has a Hart trophy in his cabinet instead of Nathan MacKinnon is absurd, and I could go on a 1000 word rant about it, but that’s not what we’re here for. The point I’m trying to make is this, MacKinnon has been otherworldly for this team so far, but he’s not doing it alone. Rookie sensation Cale Makar has been without a shadow of a doubt the Avs second-best player this season. Outside of a strange upper-body injury that kept him out of the lineup for a couple games, the kid has been a stud. Makar currently leads ALL rookies in scoring and has done so playing fewer games than all other rookies in the top five. He also recently broke the Avalanche rookie record for goals by a defenseman with 33 games remaining. The man he passed, John Michael Liles, was no slouch either (also a man rocket but that’s neither here nor there). Makar is not just the next Erik Karlsson he could be the next Nick Lidstrom. I know that sounds ridiculous, but it really isn’t. While both those guys are living up to the hype the best news of this season so far has been the success of the added depth players. Joe Sakic was an absolute wizard this offseason, and the additions of guys like Kadri, Burakovsky, and Donskoi have added a level of depth the Avs haven’t had since the early 2000s. Burakovsky and Donskoi are on track to have career years, and Kadri has used his extra minutes to get back to where he was before he was downgraded to a third-line center with the Leafs. While the big-name additions have garnered much of the attention the bottom-six guys have been getting theirs as well. Pierre-Edward Bellemare, Matt Clavert, and Matt Nieto, when played together, may just be the best “fourth line” in the NHL. They have an uncanny ability to turn relentless defense into odd-man rushes with consistency. All of these positives have lead to the Avs being the NHL’s highest-scoring team at 3.65 goals per game, but perhaps more impressively has been the Avs ability to keep the puck out their own net. They rank 11th in the NHL with 2.90 goals against per game. Keeping both those rankings in the top third of the league should lead to a very consistent team in the second half of the season.

THE BAD: Injuries, Inconsistency, and Special Teams

While this season has undeniably been a success to this point, there have been some issues that, if solved, could be the difference between a playoff run and a first-round exit. Arguably the biggest problem for this team this year has been its health. Almost every player on the team has missed time with injury. In fact, only Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Girard, and Ryan Graves have played every game (Graves was scratched for one game earlier in the season, but has yet to miss a game due to injury). 10 players have missed more than 3 games this year. That includes Mikko and Gabe both missing 16 games, Cale Makar missed 8, and Erik Johnson missed 11. On top of that, both of the Avs NHL goalies missed games with injuries. The boys over at “Man-Games Lost” projected that as of January 16th the Avs had lost 9.77 points in the standings due to injuries. That sits second only to the Penguins who have been bent over backward by injuries as bad as any team I’ve seen. While injuries are clearly out of the control of players and coaches, the inconsistency that has come with them isn’t. So far this season the Avs have dropped four games in a row three separate times. That sort of inconsistency is not often associated with Stanley Cup-winning teams. The Blues from last year are obviously a big fuck you to that statement, but that simply isn’t the norm. Teams that win the cup very rarely lose three games in a row let alone four. While I don’t have a single statistic to back that up it feels right, and frankly, I’m a feel guy. Inconsistency is something that needs to be resolved in the second half of the season if this team is gonna make a run for the Cup. Last but certainly not least is the god damn special teams. These special teams will be the death of me at this rate. I wake up at night with nightmares about the PP and PK. I simply do not understand how a team that has sooooo much talent on the ice every night can’t convert a power play at least 20% of the time. While I would never call for Bednar’s head, because he’s a regal stallion and should be the coach that brings a Cup back to Denver, I’m starting to think Bennett might be headed for the proverbial showers. Bennett had plenty of success in the last two years coaching the PP (top 10 PP both seasons) but this year with much more talent the team ranks 20th. It’s hard to believe and even harder to stomach. A firing may not be in the cards this late into the year, but if there isn’t a turn around I would not be surprised if there was a new face running the PP next year. The penalty kill has been equally as bad, but the team’s ability to score has masked the fact that the Avs are only killing 79% of penalties this year. The shitty PK is a bit easier to deal with because no one expected it to be one of the team’s strong suits. If they can get that 79 up to an 82-83 there shouldn’t be too many worries come playoff time. 

THE WEIRD/SURPRISING: Ryan Graves and Goaltending

Ryan Graves has been a bright shining star for this team so far this season. The young defenceman hasn’t gotten the fanfare that Makar has, but make no mistake, he’s been incredible. At the risk of sounding like an ass, I’m gonna say I kinda called this. Towards the end of last season, and into playoffs, Graves began to get more and more time in the NHL. His play just seemed to get better and better with every game, and with that, my family and friends had to listen to me wax poetic about how talented I thought he was. If you don’t believe me just ask them because my incessant babbling probably burned his name into their skulls. His improvement has carried into this season in a BIG way. When the Avs traded Chris Bigras (lol remember him) to the Rangers for Graves no one thought much of the deal, but I think outside of the Duchene trade its the best decision Sakic has made. Graves currently, and for some time, has led the NHL in +/-. Which is a stat I don’t love, but its the only numerical value that is easy to point out. As the season has progressed Graves has found himself on the ice for more and more important possessions, and the pairing with Makar is a pretty clear sign of Bednar’s trust in the kid. While Graves’s defensive attributes have been the most noticeable attribute he has found a way to get on the score sheet to the tune of 8 goals and 11 assists. Not too shabby for a “stay at home” defenceman. While Ryan Graves’s emergence has been a very welcome surprise, the goaltending has been a bit weird. After the run Grubauer went on at the end of last season and into playoffs, everyone believed that was going to be the norm. Well as we all should have known that’s just not how goaltending works in the NHL. Grubauer has had a rollercoaster of a season so far but has started to get things back on track with a few convincing wins going into the break. While Grubi struggled to find his groove, little known commodity Pavel Francouz has been very solid. Frankie has, in fact, been one of the best goalies in the entire NHL, ranking ninth in both save percentage and goals-against average (among goalies who have made at least 10 starts). If Grubauer can find something close to the form he had to finish out last season, and Francouz continues at this level this team should feel very comfortable no matter what happens come playoffs. 

This team has achieved much more to this point than in both of the last two years. That’s a great sign moving forward as they shouldn’t have to fight and claw their way into playoffs as they have in seasons passed. The rest of the season should be an absolute treat, and I for one can’t wait to see what it holds. All I can say for now is the snow is certainly good, and Go Avs Go.

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